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Scenarios are a key instrument to guide decision-making in the face of an uncertain future. In the field of energy, scenarios are often published to inform external stakeholders who are not part of the scenario development. This study explores how researchers, a key stakeholder group in shaping the energy future, use energy scenarios. It analyses the case of Switzerland, where several competing scenarios have been developed in reaction to the governmental decision to phase-out nuclear power. 16 structured in-depth interviews with researchers from different disciplinary backgrounds were conducted. While most interviewees use public energy scenarios, there are two contrasting user types. The first group, labelled divers, primarily uses scenarios as a data source, whereas the other group, the sailors, refers to them as plausible energy futures. We identified different interpretations of scenario content between sailors and divers, which result from the quantitative modelling on which contemporary energy scenarios are based. Due to a lack of guidance from modellers and missing qualitative information, energy scenarios are prone to misconceptions and distortions in their interpretation by external users.

The raw data set is available at the Zenodo repository: 10.5281/zenodo.3395054 ; Various countries have pledged to carry out system-wide energy transitions to address climate change. This requires taking strategic decisions with long-term consequences under conditions of considerable uncertainty. For this reason, many actors in the energy sector develop model-based scenarios to guide debates and decision-making about plausible future energy systems. Besides being a decision support instrument for policy-makers, energy scenarios are widely recognized as a way of shaping the expectations of experts and of influencing energy policy more generally. However, relatively little is known about how energy scenarios shape preferences and expectations of the public. We use an explorative research design to assess the publics' expectations of future energy systems through an online survey among Swiss residents (N = 797). We identified four significantly different clusters of people with distinct expectations about the future energy system, each seeing different implications for the acceptability of energy policies and the compatibility with projections of techno-economic energy scenarios. Cluster 1 expects a system-wide energy transition towards renewable energy sources that is similar to the policy-relevant national energy scenario. Cluster 2 also expects an energy transition, but believes it will lead to a range of technical challenges, societal conflicts and controversies with neighboring countries. Cluster 3 is the only cluster not expecting significant changes in the future energy system and thus not anticipating an energy transition. Cluster 4's expectations are between cluster 1 and 2, but it anticipates a huge increase in per capita electricity demand while prices are expected to remain low. The study at hand offers some initial insights into the interdependencies between energy transition pathways outlined in techno-economic energy scenarios and the energy system expectations of the public. These insights are essential for gaining a better understanding of whether and how energy scenarios can contribute to informed public debates about energy futures and how desirable pathways towards them might look like.

Various countries have pledged to carry out system-wide energy transitions to address climate change. This requires taking strategic decisions with long-term consequences under conditions of considerable uncertainty. For this reason, many actors in the energy sector develop model-based scenarios to guide debates and decision-making about plausible future energy systems. Besides being a decision support instrument for policy-makers, energy scenarios are widely recognized as a way of shaping the expectations of experts and of influencing energy policy more generally. However, relatively little is known about how energy scenarios shape preferences and expectations of the public. We use an explorative research design to assess the publics' expectations of future energy systems through an online survey among Swiss residents (N = 797). We identified four significantly different clusters of people with distinct expectations about the future energy system, each seeing different implications for the acceptability of energy policies and the compatibility with projections of techno-economic energy scenarios. Cluster 1 expects a system-wide energy transition towards renewable energy sources that is similar to the policy-relevant national energy scenario. Cluster 2 also expects an energy transition, but believes it will lead to a range of technical challenges, societal conflicts and controversies with neighboring countries. Cluster 3 is the only cluster not expecting significant changes in the future energy system and thus not anticipating an energy transition. Cluster 4's expectations are between cluster 1 and 2, but it anticipates a huge increase in per capita electricity demand while prices are expected to remain low. The study at hand offers some initial insights into the interdependencies between energy transition pathways outlined in techno-economic energy scenarios and the energy system expectations of the public. These insights are essential for gaining a better understanding of whether and how energy scenarios can contribute to informed public debates about energy futures and how desirable pathways towards them might look like. ; ISSN:1932-6203

Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a specific set of techno-economic futures that are typically based on a relatively narrow set of assumptions. This deviates attention from alternatives that are hardly studied by IAMs, but might be more desirable from a societal perspective. We argue that research-based models and scenarios should support rather than narrow down deliberations on possible and desirable futures and provide an impetus to enact socially desirable change. Accordingly, we propose three future directions regarding the development and use of IAMs: 1) incorporate a plurality of perspectives on plausibility and desirability through iterative participatory engagement and worldview-based scenario exploration, 2) seek collaboration with the arts and humanities to expand the range of imagined futures beyond the status quo and 3) make projected futures more tangible and experiential so that diverse societal actor groups can understand and genuinely engage with them. By deploying the indisputable analytical strengths of IAMs optimally within these suggestions, we believe they can facilitate broader societal debates about transformative pathways to low-carbon futures.

Integrated assessment models (IAM) and resulting scenarios have become increasingly institutionalised and relevant in the science-policy interface of climate policy. Despite their analytical strengths to conceive low-carbon futures, their co-evolution with the transnational science-policy interface of climate politics has also led to a focus on a specific set of techno-economic futures that are typically based on a relatively narrow set of assumptions. This deviates attention from alternatives that are hardly studied by IAMs, but might be more desirable from a societal perspective. We argue that research-based models and scenarios should support rather than narrow down deliberations on possible and desirable futures and provide an impetus to enact socially desirable change. Accordingly, we propose three future directions regarding the development and use of IAMs: 1) incorporate a plurality of perspectives on plausibility and desirability through iterative participatory engagement and worldview-based scenario exploration, 2) seek collaboration with the arts and humanities to expand the range of imagined futures beyond the status quo and 3) make projected futures more tangible and experiential so that diverse societal actor groups can understand and genuinely engage with them. By deploying the indisputable analytical strengths of IAMs optimally within these suggestions, we believe they can facilitate broader societal debates about transformative pathways to low-carbon futures.

Energy system transitions in democracies require that national interests and central planning are reconciled with the public's preferences. This pilot study investigates public support for the Swiss national energy strategy and two specific technologies that are part of it: expansion of hydropower and deep geothermal energy. It addresses two research questions. First, how does public support for a national energy transition differ from public support for specific technologies endorsed in an energy transition strategy? Second, are there differences in the factors influencing public support for these technologies? We investigate these questions empirically with a survey (N=640), focusing on understanding the role lay-people's expectations about the future energy system, political ideology, and future orientation play in generating support for these two levels of public support and for two technologies with different characteristics. We find that while support for an energy transition is well explained by above factors, this is true to a much lesser extent for technology support. One conclusion is that support for an energy transition and for energy technologies is politicized to varying degrees, which is why their acceptability may be less shaped by their objective characteristics, but rather by subjective perceptions and beliefs the public holds towards them.

Energy system transitions in democracies requires to reconcile national interests and central planning with the public's preferences. To find ways of making public support for national energy strategies and technological implementation more aligned, this article investigates public support for the Swiss national energy strategy and two specific technological measures that are part of it: expansion of hydropower and deep geothermal energy. We address two research questions. First, how does public support for a national energy transition strategy differ from public support for the specific technology endorsed in the energy transition strategy? Second, are there differences in the factors influencing public support for these technologies? We investigate these questions empirically with a survey (n=640) focused on understanding the roles that energy expectations, future orientation, knowledge, and trust play in generating support for these two policy levels and between technologies. We find that while general support for an energy transition is well explained by above factors, this is true only to a much lesser extent for technology support. One conclusions is that while political ideologies play a role for the support of general energy transition goals, the support of energy technologies does not seem to be an issue that is politicized (yet?).

Energiepolitische Regelungskompetenzen sind in der Schweiz auf den Bund, die Kantone, und die Gemeinden verteilt. Eine angemessene Aufgabenteilung zwischen diesen Staatsebenen kann den Übergang zu einem nachhaltigeren Energiesystem unterstützen. Wir untersuchen, inwiefern die gegenwärtige Mehrebenenpolitik diese Voraussetzung für zentrale Themen der Strom-, Mobilitäts- und Wärmepolitik bereits erfüllt und wo Verbesserungspotenzial besteht. Unsere Forschung legt nahe, dass zahlreiche energiepolitische Fragen einer verstärkten Koordination zwischen Bund, Kantonen und Gemeinden bedürfen. Koordinationsforen können helfen, systematischere Unterstützungsstrategien zu entwickeln sowie Zielkonflikte zwischen und innerhalb von Ebenen zu bearbeiten. Zudem sollte der Bund seine Funktion als Wegweiser bei energie- und klimapolitischen Zielsetzungen weiter ausbauen. Die Kantone sollten ihre Rechtsrahmen künftig noch konsequenter harmonisieren. Und die Gemeinden sollten systematisch bei Massnahmen eingebunden werden, wo sie umsetzend tätig werden oder wo lokale Vorbehalte bestehen.

Energy scenarios link long-term policy goals to near-term decisions and may thus guide the transition to more sustainable energy systems. Yet, systematic empirical analyses of how energy scenarios are understood and used by relevant actors are rare. This working paper addresses the situation in Switzerland, where several competing public energy scenarios have been developed by different organisations in reaction to the government's decision to phase out nuclear power. The analysis focuses on the energy research community, which has a double role in the dissemination of scenario-based insights: On the one hand, researchers develop energy scenarios which may in turn be used by decision-makers in policy and industry to create or assess action alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers are scenario users themselves. We conducted 13 structured in-depth interviews with energy researchers. The sample covers a wide scope of institutions and disciplinary backgrounds, including economics, engineering, geography, sociology, and law. We find that while most researchers do use energy scenarios, there are, essentially, two contrasting types of scenario use among them: One group of researchers, which we labelled divers, is interested in very specific data and assumptions that it wants to fully understand. A second group, which we labelled sailors, refers to the results of a scenario analysis in a more general manner. We identified different interpretations of scenario content between sailors and divers. These discrepancies are a result of the highly specialised modelling activities on which energy scenarios are based. Implicit knowledge that is generated during the process of developing energy sce-narios is inaccessible to most scenarios users. We therefore conclude the study with a discussion about the usefulness of participative stakeholder involvement and scenario documentation that is adjusted to the interests and competencies of its users. Because energy scenarios increasingly serve as a scientifically derived information basis for societal debates about energy transitions, their use needs to be studied more extensively.

Städte nehmen eine Schlüsselrolle in der Umsetzung der Energiestrategie 2050 («Energiewende») ein. Einerseits steigt der Energieverbrauch von Städten infolge der Urbanisierung, welche als einer der wichtigsten globalen Trends angesehen wird, weiter an. Andererseits haben Städte durch die vorhandene Infrastruktur mehrere Möglichkeiten, sich aktiv für die Energiewende einzusetzen. Zudem können Städte durch ihre Vorbildfunktion in den Bereichen Energieversorgung, Mobilität, Arealentwicklung oder bei der Sanierung von Gebäuden wichtige Impulse setzen. Städte stehen in enger Beziehung und Abhängigkeit zu Wirtschaft und Bevölkerung. Sie können Rahmenbedingungen schaffen, welche diese Akteure zu Energieeffizienz oder -suffizienz motivieren. Das Konzept Smart City birgt vielfältige Möglichkeiten, durch intelligente Vernetzung von Handlungsbereichen bessere Bedingungen für eine nachhaltige und moderne Stadtentwicklung zu schaffen. Mit dem integrativen Ansatz soll die Lebensqualität der Bewohnerinnen und Bewohner einer Stadt erhöht und die Mitwirkung relevanter Anspruchsgruppen ermöglicht werden. Gleichzeitig wird eine Reduktion des Energie- und Ressourcenverbrauchs in Städten angestrebt. Smart City ist daher als Lösungsansatz für die zukünftigen Herausforderungen in Städten zu verstehen. In der Schweiz wurde das Konzept allerdings bisher erst in wenigen Städten im Rahmen von einzelnen Projekten berücksichtigt und angewandt. In diesem Working Paper wird der Frage nach den Barrieren und Treibern innerhalb der Transformationsprozesse zu einer Smart City und den vordringlichen Handlungsfeldern mit ihren Akteuren nachgegangen. Auf der Grundlage einer Literatur-Studie zu Forschungs- und Praxisansätzen, einer mehrstufigen Delphi-Befragung von Schweizer Experten zu Smart Cities 2035 sowie der Teilnahme an konkreten «Smart City Winterthur»-Teilprojekten, welche in den Jahren 2014-2015 durchgeführt wurden, wurden Treiber und Barrieren identifiziert und daraus weiterer Handlungs- und Forschungsbedarf abgeleitet. Als wesentliche Treiber für die Umsetzung von Smart-City-Konzepten sind sowohl die Zusammenarbeit relevanter Akteure, die Förderung von Pilot- als auch das Aufzeigen von konkreten Smart-City-Projekten identifiziert worden, die kosten- und ressourceneffizienter sind. Damit sollen Investoren und Unternehmen zur Unterstützung solcher Projekte motiviert werden. Fehlende politische und rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen sowie die vertikalen, städtischen Verwaltungsstrukturen wirken beim integrativen Ansatz des Smart-City-Konzepts als Barrieren. Zukünftige Smart-City-Projekte sollten den Einbezug der Bevölkerung stärker berücksichtigen, insbesondere bei der Verwendung von Daten. Nebst praxisbezogenen Empfehlungen werden Hinweise zum Forschungsbedarf in der Thematik genannt.

In diesem, dem zweiten Band von "Energy Governance" befassen sich die Autoren aus vielfältiger Perspektive mit zahlreichen Fragen zur Umsetzung der Energiestrategie 2050. Sie identifizieren jene Fälle von Solaranlagen, bei denen der Ersatz einer Baubewilligung zu Rechtsunsicherheit führt. Sie untersuchen die Wirkung moderner Finanzberichterstattung auf die Politik der kantonalen Beteiligungen an Energieversorgungsunternehmen in einer Marktumgebung tiefer Strompreis. Analysiert wird weiter die staatliche Förderung der erneuerbaren Stromproduktion im Hinblick auf ihre Wirkung. Eine kritische Analyse der "Smart City"-Projekte in der Schweiz und in den Nachbarländern Deutschland und Österreich führt zu Empfehlungen, wie solche Projekte effizienter geplant und umgesetzt werden können. Auch die Beziehung öffentlicher Organisationen zu ihrer "Stakeholder-Umwelt" wird behandelt.

Sammelband der Reihe "Energy Governance Working Paper" Nr. 1 bis 7 ; Die Energiestrategie 2050 des Bundes definiert anspruchsvolle Ziele. Für deren Erreichung hat der Bundesrat daher unter anderem den Aktionsplan Energieforschung ins Leben gerufen. Dazu wurden acht sogenannte SCCERs, Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research, initiiert, in denen hochschulübergreifend angewandte Energie-Forschung betrieben wird. Die Zürcher Hochschule für Angewandte Wissenschaften (ZHAW) ist an vier dieser acht SCCERs aktiv beteiligt. Die ZHAW hat diese Aufgabe zum Anlass genommen, Energieforschung zum strategischen Schwerpunkt der gesamten Fachhochschule zu erklären und in allen Departementen Kompetenzaufbauprojekte zu starten. Der vorliegende Sammelband präsentiert die ersten Ergebnisse dieser Kompetenzaufbauprojekte an der School of Management and Law, wobei zwei dieser Projekte in Zusammenarbeit mit Forschern aus den Departementen Angewandte Linguistik und School of Engineering erfolgten. Dabei wurden die Herausforderungen und Chancen, die sich für Staat und Wirtschaft aus der Umsetzung der Energiestrategie 2050 ableiten, auf verschiedenen Ebenen betrachtet: die Schweiz im internationalen Vergleich, Besonderheiten der Führung von EVUs, rechtliche und ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen und die Gestaltung der Energie-Zukunft in Schweizer Städten.